Colouring Canada blue: Notes on the 2006 election

BY JOSEPH PLANTA

Tuesday, 24 January 2006

VANCOUVER - The country can't be coloured blue just yet.

The polls were perhaps too optimistic. The Conservative Party victory on Monday was underwhelming in that the party did not achieve the seat total that the Liberals got as a minority in 2004. The world didn't shake as much as tremble slightly, handing over the government to the Conservatives with conditions. The Liberals are punished, and they are now leaderless. The NDP improves slightly. The Bloc slips in Quebec. Stephen Harper is the country's next prime minister, but his mandate gives him little room to manoeuvre. Sweeping, wholesale change will have to wait. Harper has to build credibility and consensus first.

The seat totals from yesterday's election poses some interesting scenarios. The folks at Global Television, whose coverage was anchored by Kevin Newman, played naughty with a suggestion that perhaps Paul Martin and the Liberals could still hang on to power if they could coalesce with the NDP. Even the Liberals saw the writing on the wall and could not have even thought of attempting such silliness, especially since Harper had a plurality of seats, and was six points ahead of the Liberals in terms of the popular vote. It would have been unadulterated power grabbing had the Liberals done that, and Global was awfully mischievous to suggest it. The Conservatives earned its mandate, tenuous though it may be.

The surprise of the night was the collapse of Liberal support in Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois's popular vote slipped some six points too, but the Liberals went down over 13 points to 20% of support in Quebec. The Conservatives went from less than 9% in 2004 to nearly 25% outdrawing the Liberals, thus proving that they have broken into Quebec and they are a credible federalist alternative. The Liberals were doubtless hurt by the sponsorship scandal. Not to mention, the Liberal government of Jean Charest hasn't been too popular. Stephen Harper ought not to seek the soverigntist's favour as much as build himself to be the standard bearer of federalism in Quebec as the Liberals have been repudiated so.

Paul Martin's stepping down raises some interesting scenarios gleaned from recent history. On election night 1979, Pierre Trudeau also chose to step aside when Joe Clark and the Progressive Conservatives won a minority mandate. There was a leadership contest within Liberal ranks when the Clark government was defeated on a confidence motion, thus precipitating another election. Martin says he's not going to lead his party in the next election. So, what happens if the Harper government is defeated in the House, thus triggering an election? Would Martin do like Trudeau and run again? That's inconceivable, because even the NDP has said Canadians aren't in the mood for another election anytime soon. With that, one could say Harper's minority has the life of about 18 to 24 months at the least. The onus is on Harper then to build bridges between him and the other MPs, as well as forge consensus with them so that budgets can be passed and policy can be affected from the House of Commons. Canadians don't want another election anytime soon, and the politicians themselves won't want one either.

The stepping aside of Martin raised interesting questions amongst the pundits bloviating on television last night. Does that leave the considerably large Liberal opposition without a leader? Who takes up the mantle of leadership in the House? And who are some of the candidates for leadership? The implication of Martin's departure for Stephen Harper is one that must be seized upon quickly. Without Martin or any other effective leader, Harper can appeal directly to Liberal MPs for their support on issues. So, if Harper needs some votes on a bill, then he ought to reach out to Liberals and seek their support on issues that are of mutual agreement. The Liberals have more in common with the Conservatives on some issues, than the Conservatives have in common with either the Bloc or the NDP.

The other trend seen loudly in the election results is the gap between rural and urban Canada. In this city, that was quite obvious. The Liberals exceeded expectations in British Columbia winning nine seats, up one from 2004. But by retaining the bulk of their BC seats they shut out the Conservatives in urban British Columbia, in particular Vancouver. Vancouver is not at the table again, it could be said. A Conservative cabinet will have BC representation sure, but not from the province's largest city. Harper's task as leader will not only be reconciling the differences between the regions, but more importantly currying favour in urban centres so that his government is truly national.

The implications of this general election are many, and will be doubtless discussed elsewhere and in this space in the future. Here are some notes from an evening watching the pundits on television and on my computer:

Though the Global coverage played mischievous with their suggestion that Martin could hang on to power, they ought to be commended for providing their television coverage live on the internet. It was a great help to me who had the television sets tuned to other channels, while having the Global feed on my laptop throughout the evening. I'm sure for people without televisions, or outside of the country where Global stations aren't accessible, this was a welcome addition.

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It was interesting to note the panels that the three major networks assembled. (I'm a CPAC fan, but they moved channels not so long ago in Vancouver to somewhere higher up in the grid. So every time I wanted to see what CPAC was doing, as I switched between the major networks, I kept putting the old number in, thus seeing some old western instead of Peter Van Dusen and Martin Stringer. I gave up going to CPAC and ended up alternating with the CBC and CTV on the box, with Global on my computer.) The CBC had Peter Mansbridge, Keith Boag and Don Newman, along with Ian Hanomansing and Wendy Mesley. Their panel of pundits was comprised of Conservative Senator Hugh Segal, NDP statesman Ed Broadbent, and former Liberal deputy prime minister John Manley. It was a bit more distinguished, but it seemed for a more geriatric set if you ask me.

CTV was more robust with Lloyd Robertson and Craig Oliver anchoring a panel that consisted of a bunch of formers, former Conservative MP John Reynolds, former Liberal cabinet minister Brian Tobin, former BC NDP leader Joy MacPhail, and former PQ cabinet minister Joseph Facal. They were less august than the CBC panel, even fun at times, but I was constantly distracted by MacPhail's hair. Someone should buy Joy a comb.

The Global panel that Kevin Newman threw to for punditry was headed by Global reporter Troy Reeb and included the Western Standard editor Ezra Levant, former Liberal Party president Stephen LeDrew, and Leah Casselman, representing a union, thus providing the NDP side of the things. The Global panel was far more lively and entertaining. None of this trio could be considered pushovers, and it was great watching their arguments back and forth. It wasn't all partisan left versus right nonsense either, as each delivered thoughtful interjections on the results being reported. The Global panel is my choice for best panel of the night.

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Amongst the anchors, I thought Kevin Newman did a very fine job, save for that business about suggesting that the Liberals form a coalition with the NDP. As for his choice of dress, I wouldn't have worn grey. I thought Lloyd Robertson was the best dressed, choosing a far less ostentatious suit than that pinstriped thing he had on in 2004. I remember mumbling to myself 18 months ago, 'You're an anchor, Lloyd, not a mob boss.' Mansbridge was good, but when he kept gesturing or speaking with his arms crossed, I kind of felt the night wearing on him. He didn't appear like he wanted to be there, or he was too relaxed to be reporting what were interesting, if not exciting results. Robertson, as it got later in the night gathered from his vast array of superlatives, and threw out adjectives to describe the results and events of the night. Newman was the best of the night because he seemed genuinely excited and energised. The including of the viewers via webcam we could have done without. And in British Columbia at least, their local coverage on BCTV was as ever, reliable.

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I did catch Kim Campbell being interviewed from Madrid on the CBC. I thought it was a nice perspective to include.

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I couldn't help but think when Lloyd Robertson was interviewing Jack Layton and Olivia Chow that we could be seeing a lot of Canada's only husband and wife duo in this Parliament. You'll recall in 2004 that another domestic duo was elected, the Conservative Gurmant and Nina Grewal. He got mixed up with some taping thing and has been routinely discredited, but she won re-election last night. I don't see the same fate for the first couple of the NDP. On the contrary, we could see a sort of co-leader arrangement between the two. I wonder how the other NDP MPs will feel about Ms. Chow's higher profile.

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Finally, I ought to note that in the riding of Selkirk-Interlake, NDP candidate Ed Schreyer did not defeat the Conservative incumbent James Bezan. Earlier in the campaign, I noted Schreyer's candidacy in this space with a column, so I ought to note that the former governor general will not be returning to Ottawa as an MP. There was a bit of discussion as to whether only a certain age or class of person should be appointed to the viceroy so that its cache wouldn't be diminished by former holders of the office going on to other more partisan roles. I guess we don't have to worry about that anymore, especially since Schreyer didn't make it to Parliament as a former governor general, former premier, or even former MP.

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An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE.