Harping on Harper

BY JOSEPH PLANTA

Tuesday, 29 November 2005

VANCOUVER - So there's a federal election. The plug is pulled on the minority government and we're back on the campaign hustings, waiting for the first shot of ugliness, or that premiere moment of angst for strategists when a candidate shoots themselves in the mouth.

The leaders are the same from the 2004 campaign, which is seemingly a couple of centuries ago. Paul Martin will play the fear card and demonise Stephen Harper, while making sure he reminds Canadians of that old saw that we should keep a good thing going. Harper will soften his image by cultivating phoney images of himself catching footballs, building snowmen, and kissing babies, while reminding Canadians that the Liberals are corrupt or even criminals. Jack Layton will be fighting for breathing room, hoping that Canadians will remember he still exists, throwing salvos at both Martin and Harper, hoping the average voter disenchanted by the big two, will reward his merry band of socialists with a vote. And in Quebec, Giles Duceppe will lap up this campaign catching Gomery fallout, reminding Quebeckers that their lot is best with a Bloc Quebecois caucus in Ottawa.

The conundrum that I've always faced in federal elections is that I often struggle with my vote. Do I vote for the best representative that my riding could send to Ottawa? Or do I vote the candidate carrying the party banner of the leader whom I like best?

Now, I like Stephen Harper. I'm not scared of him. He's a thoughtful politician, and I think he has the makings of a good prime minister. His secret agenda is hardly secret. He doesn't want to privatise healthcare, and he doesn't want to cast gays off to some lower status in society. In 2004, I voted for the Conservative candidate in my riding, because I thought it was necessary to get the Liberals out. I still think that the Liberals need to get turfed, however my candidate in my riding came third. The Liberal won, while the NDP came second.

So, do I still vote Conservative even when my vote appears meaningless in an urban riding like mine? In British Columbia, and especially in the Vancouver area, the race is between the Liberals and the NDP. Unless the polls and the feeling in the riding are deceiving, it was like that in 2004 and will probably be the same in 2006.

Paul Martin is fighting the battle of his political career. If he wins big, he's got the mandate that he's wanted and will govern for the next little while at the very least. If he musters a minority much like 2004, then he's toast. He's a lame duck until the Liberals choose a successor. If he loses, and Harper wins, then of course he's done, and his legacy as prime minister will be few and far between. He could be fighting Kim Campbell, John Turner and Joe Clark for that all-important asterisk in the sweepstakes of the historians.

This election is Stephen Harper's to lose. If the miracle of miracles occurs and Harper sweeps urban ridings like mine in Vancouver, then it will have been a strong and decisive mandate. However, it's unlikely he will, especially in my riding of Vancouver Kingsway. If you were a betting person, put your money on another minority. It will be whether it's one headed by Paul Martin, or one that's headed by Stephen Harper. Then again, the campaign has just begun and with weeks ahead of us we forget that in politics they're akin to centuries.

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