Joseph Planta's Commentary - thecommentary.ca

Thursday, 19 May 2005

Losers and winners in the BC election

By Joseph Planta

(posted Wednesday, 18 May 2005)

VANCOUVER - So, who lost Tuesday's provincial election? Between the three major political leaders, I'd have to say Adriane Carr fared the worst considering her future as the head of the Green Party is questionable. She failed to win her seat in her riding of Powell River-Sunshine Coast twice now, and between both runs, she lost a by-election run in Surrey-Panorama Ridge. Green Party support fell despite a high profile in this year's campaign.

Gordon Campbell won another majority, but it's muted success considering he fell from the 77 seats he won four years ago. He was also expected to win about fifty seats. Carole James and the NDP won more than the expected high to mid-20s, expanding its caucus from a mere three. Besides raw numbers, James won the campaign by exceeding expectations. Any NDP leader could have done well what with the polarisation of the province and the unpopularity of the Premier, however James did better. The gap between party support is about five percent. James closed a wide gap, and she's got a strong caucus she's bringing into the house when it reconvenes. More importantly, James has political capital that she's earned hard this past campaign. This isn't the capital that she'll use against the Liberals in the House, but rather within her own party. Expectations for her own leadership were mild at best. She was thought to be at best an opposition leader within the House, holding the leadership until a viable candidate for premier would emerge. In 2009, she could very well be a viable alternative.

As I write this, the results for the STV referendum aren't complete. One can't speculate what'll happen in 2009. It's obvious that Adriane Carr's future as head of the Green Party is in question. She placed third in her riding, despite her high profile across the province. She's had more than four years cultivating that profile, and if she can't win at home, and her party's support has fallen a bit, then it's clear that the Greens must consider their leadership.

Gordon Campbell's future is in question as well. He didn't do well in the campaign, and the result shows that. The Liberals will probably think they could do better with a new leader. Amongst the group of Liberal MLA's-elect, there's a number of good candidates (Carole Taylor chief among them), not to mention those on the outside who could restage a comeback, Gary Collins and Christy Clark for two.

As for Carole James, before talking about winning in 2009, she's got that political capital sure, but will the NDP of the past, embodied in the return of such faces as Harry Lali, Sue Hammell, Corky Evans and Adrian Dix mean for some difficulties within the party. The NDP is known to eat their own from time to time, so the old guard could attempt a coup for no other reason than they want the chair for themselves. And besides a fine and universally laudable performance, James has probably got some allies with those sort of new-New Democrats elected, people like Gregor Robertson or Rob Fleming, who don't have the stench of the 1990's New Democrats on their hides.

Gordon Campbell's caucus is a bit interesting to look at. They lost a number of ridings on the Island and the coast, losing veteran cabinet ministers like Stan Hagen and Graham Bruce, as well as Susan Brice. It's interesting to note that they're old Socreds. The caucus is full of MLA's from the so-called 'heartland.' Mary Polak, the controversial candidate won her seat in Langley. Her profile is borne in the fact she opposed same-sex books in schools. One wonders what relationship she'll forge with the openly gay and publicity hounding Lorne Mayencourt, should he emerge victorious in the recount in Vancouver Burrard.

Of course, the question as to who will make the cabinet will be interesting. More than that will be who won't. Carole Taylor and Wally Oppal are shoo-ins. But what about those backbenchers or junior cabinet ministers who were re-elected on Tuesday? Do they get passed over, or do they make it into cabinet finally? And how will their loyalty sway when their re-elections and loyalty to Premier Campbell isn't rewarded? One salivates at the thought of defections and ousters from caucus that are bound to happen-and not just on the Liberal side.

It's bound to be an interesting four years.

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