Tuesday, 29 June 2004
Losers all around: Federal Election 2004 Notebook - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER - Though Paul Martin and the Liberal Party won the election, it was hardly a victory for him and his party. From the time Paul Martin took over the leadership of the Liberal Party to Monday's election, something happened. Then, it looked as though that the Paul Martin Liberals would win the kind of majority that John Diefenbaker and Brian Mulroney won, in 1958 and 1984, respectively. Now, with those hopes dashed, Canada will have a minority government, the first since 1979.
Watching Paul Martin's speech (one could hardly call it a victory speech) he certainly looked pained. He manoeuvred his way through the crowd at Liberal Party headquarters with an uncomfortable look. Either he didn't want to be amongst the throng of supporters, or he was consumed wondering how so much promise went awry. Oddly enough, Paul Martin is beginning to look his age. Unlike the comparisons made between him and Jean Chrétien in the past, he's beginning to wear his age awkwardly (the little girl trying to put a lei around his neck said it all). Perhaps it was a sign of how tough this campaign was (his idle rambling didn't encourage otherwise either).
It also didn't yield much confidence when at the tail end of the campaign it looked as if the Conservatives and Stephen Harper were going to win, that the Liberal campaign machine went into negative mode. Instead of relying on their record of ten years in government, the Liberals capitalised on the public's fear of Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party. And in a way it worked, as it stopped the Conservatives, but not before giving them the benefit of the doubt, with a strong opposition that will need to be vigorous in the Parliament ahead.
Looking at the results across the country it is clear that the Liberals could have lost this election a couple of weeks ago. Prior to the debates, the possibility of a Stephen Harper led minority or majority looked plausible that it set the Liberals worried, thus their campaign of fear and negativity. Paul Martin may have saved the party's fortunes by avoiding an ignominious defeat; however with the NDP's participation in a coalition to prop up the minority for some time to come, it is apparent that Paul Martin's right-wing tendencies will need to be sacrificed for a viable coalition to keep his government afloat.
In the end, looking at the results nationwide, the only clear winner is Gilles Duceppe. The Bloc Quebecois leader smashed Paul Martin's hope of sweeping Quebec. The province where the sponsorship scandal was to have benefited the most, was the one, curiously enough, who sent the Liberals the message that the rest of Canada should have sent. Just when separatism seemed on the wane, what with the defeat of the Parti Quebecois government in the province, and the paralysis that set in when Bernard Landry opened up his mouth late in the campaign, Duceppe surprised most, capturing a plurality of seats in the province, not to mention a seat total that is equal to Lucien Bouchard's groundbreaking win in 1993. For Paul Martin to lose so badly in Quebec must have hurt, as all along he was deemed more popular in the province than his predecessor Jean Chrétien. Federalism was dealt a blow in Quebec, Monday, what with the separatist party gaining so much. Jean Chrétien is expected to gloat, even though his Saint Maurice riding fell to the Bloc.
Stephen Harper, though the number of seats Conservatives have this time is higher, was obviously disappointed with lacklustre results in Ontario. The Liberals instilled fear about the Conservatives, and the Conservatives were unable to convince Ontarians otherwise. Though it went into the race with two Ontario seats, and emerged with 24 of a possible 106, the Liberals were still very strong, and the linking of Paul Martin to the Dalton McGuinty provincial government did not work. Many of Harper's star Conservatives in Ontario came up short. Belinda Stronach, though she won in Newmarket-Aurora, was in a very tight race that she won by less than 1,000 votes. Tony Clement, the former Ontario Tory health minister, and former contender for the Conservative leadership, failed to unseat Liberal incumbent Colleen Beaumier in Brampton West. Though the Conservatives improved their lot from 2000, in a lot of races across the country it seems clear that it's rather like the status quo, and the pain of the hard fought campaign seems to have yielded very little for the Conservatives. There is barely a foothold established in Atlantic Canada, what with the Liberals actually gaining seats there, and a couple incumbent seats going to the Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador (Rex Barnes losing his seat in Bonavista-Exploits), as well as in New Brunswick (the retired Elsie Wayne's Saint John seat going to the Liberals's Paul Zed).
Though Jack Layton's NDP, with a caucus of 19 members, holds the balance of power in the Paul Martin minority, it hasn't been the victory that most expected, namely Layton himself. The NDP had hoped, what with the rise in prominence across the country, that they would match the party's record 1988 result. Alas, they came up short. Though former leader Ed Broadbent won his Ottawa seat, and the NDP made the most gains in British Columbia, the seat count is half of what Layton thought it should be. Paul Martin's thin victory was won by gaining enough NDP voters who were bought into the fear of Stephen Harper, and voted Liberal to stop the Conservatives.
Olivia Chow, failed to unseat long-time Liberal Tony Ianno in Trinity-Spadina, thus she and her husband Jack Layton, failed to become the first husband and wife team to enter Parliament together. But the Fraser Valley's Nina Grewal, who won in Fleetwood-Port Kells, won her seat, and joins her husband Gurmant Grewal, who won in the tight race in Newton-North Delta. Though the Conservatives won the majority of BC seats, it's clear by the number of tight races in the province how much support the Conservatives have lost. In Victoria, where David Anderson was facing a tough re-election campaign, it was thought his Conservative opponent would put up the fight; alas the NDP's candidate gave Anderson a good run for his money. The Alliance came close to beating Anderson in 2000, and a repeat was anticipated this year. However due to the NDP's popular candidate, former Victoria mayor David Turner, the Conservatives came in third. Also, in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, it was a tight race for long-time Conservative MP John Reynolds. Reynolds, long a political personality in this province, as an MP in the 1970s, and a provincial pol in the 1980s, and again an MP in the 1990s to the present, faced stiff competition from his Liberal opponent, who gave his victory speech a little too soon. Reynolds won the riding, but it was very close. His Liberal opponent, Blair Wilson, blamed Reynolds's tight showing, to his lack of campaigning in the riding. Reynolds, a star of the Conservative party, was dispatched to Ontario and elsewhere to stump for candidates. That may have hurt him at home.
Taking for granted, was also another weakness for the Conservatives, as they lost Skeena-Bulkley Valley to the NDP's Nathan Cullen. The northern BC riding went to the neophyte politician, which isn't a surprise, as Skeena was once a Liberal seat in the 1970s (BC's current Lieutenant Governor Iona Campagnolo held that seat then), and Bulkley Valley was an NDP held riding provincially in the 1990s. The NDP scored another gain from the Conservatives in Nanamo-Cowichan, with Jean Crowder winning, what was an NDP seat in 1980s. The NDP posted gains on Vancouver Island, where support for the left has been known to be had. The Greens did very well there in the 2001 provincial election.
In my own riding of Vancouver Kingsway, where I had endorsed and voted for the Conservative candidate; the victor was Liberal David Emerson. Emerson retained the riding, which Sophia Leung held since 1997, when the riding was redistributed. He faced a competitive race with Ian Waddell of the NDP, who gave the former forestry executive a run for his money; with at last check barely 2000 votes separating the two. Waddell did increase the NDP vote total in the riding by about 10,000 votes from 2000, but perhaps that was due to his higher profile. Johl, my candidate, who came in third, fell behind the Alliance's showing in 2000 (who came in second with some 11,000 votes), making it obvious that the riding is a Liberal riding if only that it can move from right to left, if a higher profile candidate is running against the Liberal.
The federal election result proffers a view and insight into the voting habits of British Columbians, in anticipation of next spring's provincial election. Though the federal Liberals can't be equated to the Gordon Campbell Liberals, what with the federal party's inclusion of people like Ujjal Dosanjh, Shirley Chan and Dave Haggard in British Columbia (or the defeated Glen Murray in Charleswood-St. James in Manitoba), a bit of the NDP's rise in support in pockets of the province, namely in Nanaimo and in the Interior, was due to the linking that voters did with the Liberals in Victoria to that of the Conservative Party's platform. And as Hedy Fry, the re-elected Liberal in Vancouver Centre, herself admitted on election night, the federal Liberals also suffered a bit thanks to some of the public's linking of both Liberal entities. Thus the NDP did make some gains, and obviously Carole James must be relieved that the NDP has gained some renewed support.
And with the NDP and Jack Layton being courted for their support in propping up the Paul Martin government, it will be curious when one re-reads the winded press release put out by the Liberal Party on Friday, which hit the wires with the following headline: "Jack Layton deserves no 'central role' in protecting Canada." Someone may want to revisit the contents of that communiqué, as the parties coalesce soon.
"So come back in four years, right?" I told my poll clerk on Monday, as she handed me back my ballot to drop into the box. Obviously, I was mistaken. What with Monday's result, we'll be seeing each other again sooner. As the election didn't yield any definable winner, save for perhaps Gilles Duceppe, my bet is that Canadians will be voting again, next spring at the earliest. You read it here last.
-30-
Questions and comments may be sent to: editor@thecommentary.ca
An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .