Wednesday, 17 March 2004
Supposing the Conservatives - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER - Next weekend, there will be a new leader of the new Conservative Party of Canada. Of the three candidates: former Ontario Tory cabinet minister Tony Clement, former Canadian Alliance leader Stephen Harper, and former auto parts magnate Belinda Stronach, one will emerge as the leading contender to face Paul Martin, and until the general election would become leader of the second largest party in the House.
The leadership race thus far has garnered some attention, unlike the previous Alliance race when Stephen Harper trumped Stockwell Day, or the previous Progressive Conservative race where Peter MacKay beat David Orchard, Jim Prentice and Scott Brison; Brison, now visible in the House of Commons, sitting behind Paul Martin, Brison now a Liberal Parliamentary Secretary. One suspects a lot of the attention in the media has been for the fact that Belinda Stronach was in the race. The auto parts magnate, turned broker, who brought MacKay and Harper together, threw her hat in the ring enduring media scrutiny and pockets of support throughout the country. The blonde Belinda was a figure of fascination, considering her career heretofore did not lend itself to one wishing an entry into politics. Nonetheless, she was in the race and speaking lacklustre French, posing policies thin on thought, and smiling her winning smile across the country, she managed to get people watching the race at hand.
Stephen Harper and Peter MacKay deserve much kudos in bringing together the old warhorses, the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties together. Sure, it's a shame that there is no longer a Canadian Alliance, one bred close to the grassroots as its predecessor the Reform Party was; and it's a shame there's no longer a PC Party, or at least that this new Conservative Party hasn't got those stalwarts like Flora MacDonald or Joe Clark amongst its ranks. It is an uphill battle for this new entity. Its marriage may have been at the behest of a shotgun, but with time, it could flourish into that pan-Canadian entity that was the Tory party before 1993.
Throughout the campaign, it was believed that a Stephen Harper win would signal not only to Conservatives, but also to Canadians, that this new party would be nothing but the old Alliance party, and that the PC Party had been taken over. The stigma of the Conservative Party being nothing more than the sum of its parts - a marriage between the Tories and Alliance - is something that needs to resonate not only to Canadians dissatisfied with the Liberals or the NDP, but to their traditional base of support.
In British Columbia, where the Reform/Alliance has dominated since 1993, the Conservative Party isn't being embraced wholeheartedly. Paul Martin, surprisingly enough is more palatable then Jean Chrétien, thus a surge in Liberal support has been seen. British Columbians who have supported the Reform/Alliance previously look at the Conservative Party as nothing more than the Alliance party being taken over by Central Canada, something that the Reform/Alliance parties were originally premised against.
A Stephen Harper win would be good west of the Lakehead, however for everything to the east of the Ontario border, it could mean very little. The Progressive Conservative's base of support was in Atlantic Canada. Its MPs have generally moved into the new tent, however with the Paul Martin juggernaut across the nation, they look tender. Where the majority of seats are, Ontario and Quebec, the new Conservative Party can write-off Quebec as none of the three hopefuls have a chance at winning at least one seat there. Ontario however is the bell-whether. If as expected, Stephen Harper wins, will he be able to garner the support of Ontarians? In 2000, when the Canadian Alliance was just formed, their candidate Stockwell Day looked to be like the great right hope. Here was a telegenic person who was reaching out to Ontario far more than Harper has been doing during this campaign, or his time as Alliance leader. Nonetheless, Day dumped and got but two Alliance MPs elected in Ontario.
In a week's time, Stephen Harper will become leader of the new Conservative Party. Is he the best candidate of the three? Probably. Clement's experience as a cabinet minister in the Conservative Common Sense Revolution in Ontario lends itself well to building the party's movement into the province. However, he was defeated last year when the Liberals came into power there. A loser is not what this new party needs. And try as Belinda Stronach might, the party has seen before what a good-looking, fresh face can do in the foxhole of federal politics. Stockwell Day imploded and the Alliance failed and evaporated. Stephen Harper has experience in the House of Commons, both as a Reform MP and as leader of the Alliance. He has also that public policy background as a former chief of the National Citizens Coalition. With time, his low-key demeanour could be the antidote against the more polished Paul Martin.
The sponsorship scandal considered, do not look for the Conservatives to form the next government. What's going on now, with Harper and the building of this party, will see fruition at the election after the next, when possibly the reins of power may be in the Conservatives grasp. Until then, the Conservatives will work against the stigmas plaguing it, and the Conservatives will need, as is necessary to hold this Liberal government and Paul Martin to account.
- 30 -
Questions and comments may be sent to: editor@thecommentary.ca
An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .