Wednesday, 21 January 2004
Goodbye Iowa, hello New Hampshire - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER - The media and political classes have fled Iowa to head off to New Hampshire for the next stop on the long road to the White House. For a while now, it's been evident that George W. Bush will be re-elected. The Democratic candidates for president, for all their rhetoric have been rather ineffective in gaining a significant lead against the incumbent President. Monday night, thanks to the hullabaloo in Iowa, the race managed to get some of the nation's attention. Iowa set the race for the nomination, which could propel one of these guys to the White House.
Two weeks ago, John Kerry was almost written off as a contender. Days are an eternity in politics, and it's evident that Kerry was the comeback kid (or the "Comeback Kerry" as he termed himself on Monday night). That, while the perceived front-runner Howard Dean was really, just smoke and mirrors, giving the media a good story while it lasted. Is it over for the former governor of Vermont Howard Dean? Dean, who came in third in the Iowa caucus, went into the vote with three spectres surrounding his campaign. First, there was some drudging up of some old footage of the-then Governor Dean on the public affairs program The Editors, calling the Iowa caucus nothing more than a waste of time for politicians, who essentially cater to extremists. Maybe that diss hurt him, or the fact that many in rural Iowa found it odd that as he was criss-crossing the country trying to be president, his wife remained in Vermont running a medical practice "seeing patients." Then there were questions about Dean's temperament, whether he was suited for the job of being President considering he is prone to panic-attacks, sensitive about his diminutive height, and quick to anger. Mind you, the weekend prior to the vote, there was a lot of dirty campaigning when John Kerry's past comments were floated, comments where he called for the abolition of the agricultural department in the federal government. In the farming counties of Iowa, it's surprising that it didn't hurt Kerry.
However, Dean was hurt. In addition, judging from his frightening display, after the vote on Monday night, you could see a hurt man reeling from defeat, covering it up, thinking he was exuding vigour and excitement when it was clear to everyone who saw the odd display, that he was nothing more than an angry loser. To think that Kerry, who is perhaps more hawkish than Dean, won a lot over anti-war voters in Iowa is curiously interesting. From a lot of the analysis of the exit polling it is clear that Kerry - though he voted for the war in Iraq - won because he wasn't mad. It is proof positive that a negative and angry candidate in the time of war, against an incumbent commander-in-chief, does not bode well for an American people still scared that another September 11th could be around the corner.
Tuesday, the Dean outburst was made fun of, deconstructed and replayed gratuitously. Watching Dean ascend the stage to make a concession speech, one tuned in rightfully frightened by the garish display of bravado that was anything but strong. It was nothing more than a short little man, angry that he lost, and angry that his chances at being the Democratic nominee were hampered.
And perhaps he could still wind up the nominee. (One is reminded that in 1988, George H.W. Bush, a sitting vice-president, went on to the Iowa caucus, to came in third to Pat Robertson, who came in first.) Yet, after a classless display of excitement that looked more uncomfortable than it did inspiring - Dean was trying too hard to be effusive that he ended up looking angry - there's no way that the American people could possibly think this man to be a calm, collected President.
Then again, New Hampshire is less than a week away, and this race is perhaps far more interesting considering that two candidates - Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman - will be included after declining to run in Iowa because of the high expense involved. Dean was considered to do well in New Hampshire, but with Senator John Kerry coming in first in Iowa, and Senator John Edwards coming in second, it's clear that some of the bloom is off Dean's rose. Howard Dean, if he doesn't place first or second in New Hampshire can call his campaign quits. It is obvious that the palaver surrounding Dean's candidature was nothing more than populism that attracted anger more than action. Dean dropping out will signal a terrible blow to the young and new voters that his candidacy has attracted. The Democrats, selecting someone like the establishment Kerry or Clark, would be loath to see a segment of the population that they so desperately need and have courted, spurned. For that's what they will be should a hawkish candidate like Kerry or Lieberman be selected, the young who hate Bush may just stay home on election day, or vote Green after being squandered so by the Democratic establishment.
I suspect one week from today, Dean is still in the race and that he's still very much in contention. That said it might not look so good for Joe Lieberman. Being largely ignored, thanks to not participating in Iowa, Lieberman may not post very good numbers in New Hampshire. Then again, whilst Kerry, Dean, Edwards and the now-departed Gephardt were battling in Iowa, Senator Lieberman and General Clark have been on the hustings in New Hampshire. Dean is sensitive (in more ways than one), and he'll be the one to watch. So will Kerry and Edwards. If they keep up the efforts they've gained in Iowa, obviously the race is over for either Lieberman, if not Dean.
Was the media making too much of a big deal over Howard Dean's wife, Dr. Judy Dean, not making more appearances by her husband's side? Were they making too much of a big deal over the "stuff" he's prescribed himself to manage his panic-attacks? Perhaps. But that's American politics. It's down and dirty and awfully muddy that long road to the White House. Whoever won in Iowa on Monday may not be the nominee come the election, but until the next big event, it does make for good discussion, not to mention cable TV viewing. It's like football or horses, it's a numbers game and it's obvious that winning is everything.
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An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .