TUESDAY, 25 NOVEMBER, 2003
The BC NDP at the crossroads - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER - The BC NDP leadership race barely ignited much of a firestorm amongst political observers. Now that it's over, and Carole James is the new leader, well there's hardly anymore to talk about. Besting six other candidates, who like the victor were hardly known, Carole James now sets the stage for what will be an interesting election come 2005. Or perhaps not, considering the NDP was all but obliterated in 2001.
However with but two seats in the Legislature, the NDP's fortunes have nowhere to go but up. Joy MacPhail and Jenny Kwan have done an absolutely commendable job holding this government's feet to the proverbial fire. Irrespective of one's political stripe, MacPhail and Kwan's dogged determination and feistiness have tested the perceived notion that parliamentary democracy is not alive and well in Victoria. Had Joy MacPhail wanted to lead the party into the next election, one suspects that the party would have stood beside her. MacPhail's tenacious performances in the house have won her many admirers regardless of the sins she may have committed herself, or by association with the previous NDP regime. However, MacPhail made it clear that being so married to the previous administration would be a liability that a new leader had to come from without the previous ten years of NDP stewardship. Plus, she was getting married to the film producer James Shavick, and MacPhail can be forgiven for wanting the personal to outweigh any political aspirations.
When MacPhail declined to run, she essentially shot down the aspirations of Jenny Kwan. Irrespective of Mike Geoghegan's outburst last week, Kwan's association with the former NDP government also dimmed her chances. Someone new had to emerge, and as appealing as it would have been to have Gordon Wilson or Corky Evans trotted out for a hell of a fight against Gordon Campbell, or even Joy MacPhail herself, the party needed to avoid political fracas for the sake of political fracas and just had to move on.
Carole James was a front-runner from the get-go. She came within 35 votes of becoming an NDP MLA in the 2001 election, and prior to the vote, she was touted as an up and coming star. Two former MLA's came to run, Leonard Krog and Steve Orcherton. Krog had the backing of old-time New Democrats, and both ran, along with Nils Jensen, who also had some big names backing him, with the notion that they were ready to defeat the Campbell Liberals, ready to form the next government.
Others argued, MacPhail especially, that the BC NDP was not trusted enough yet to form the government. So this race was actually a long application process for someone to assume the mantle of leader of the opposition, barring of course the ignominy and impossibility of the NDP being wiped out in the next election. Carole James has that job now, and she will need to travel the province and make sure that her presence is known. Failing to do so, would concede the next election at this juncture, and even concede winning any seats at all.
Carole James can't go around the province now or in the next campaign telling people she's going to be the next premier. She's in as much a race with Gordon Campbell, as she is with Adrienne Carr, or the Unity Party's Chris Delaney. The next election will not be about who will form the next government. The Liberals have that locked, but the vote will be about which party should articulate the view that best opposes that of the Campbell Liberals.
Some will argue that the NDP is that opposition to the neo-conservative government in Victoria. However, as seen in 2001, the Greens are a force to be reckoned with. Those with leftist tendencies will curse the NDP for straying too much to the centre. Leftists tend to be younger voters new to the political process, who in large numbers can mobilise and inflict damage on the electoral status quo. Will Carole James bring the NDP more to the left, or more to the centre? Either way, it's one of those damned if she does and damned if she doesn't deals. Moving to the left will tap into Green support and earn the votes of the young. However that will alienate those in the centre, who in this province make up a large portion of the population, who at the end of the day elect governments in the province. These same middle-of-the-road British Columbians aren't ideologues when they vote; they're bread and butter issues kind of people, who will gauge which party will improve their lives at the end of the day. No matter the meanness of the Liberals, who will lose seats in 2005 anyways, they will hold their nose and vote for Gordon Campbell, for the simple fact his dogmatic approach is more tested than that of the NDP's.
Many NDP backers like to cite the success of Gary Doer in Manitoba and Lorne Calvert in Saskatchewan. They're both successful premiers who happen to be NDPers. Both seem, at least from this vantage point, dedicated social democrats that also make amends with the fact that free enterprise and capitalism is alive and well. This will be a good time as any for the NDP to figure out where it is on the political spectrum. Will they sacrifice their socialist dogma for electoral success like the Premiers Doer and Calvert, or will they further narrow their appeal to the general populace in an effort to stymie the Greens?
Whatever the case, between now and the next election, Carole James and the BC NDP will need to steer the party to the course that it thinks will suit them best. Failing to do so, would render the party unelectable, if its direction is not clear. Politics abhors a vacuum, and it could be very easy for another party to step into the fore, and replace the NDP as the opposition. It is far too soon for the NDP to consider governing. Carole James can't be considered the next premier, but after her, who knows, an NDP government could be in the offing. The NDP, like all left-wing entities in this ever globalised world, must reform, or they will die.
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