Wednesday, June 4, 2003

It's Peter's party now - THE COMMENTARY

By Joseph Planta

VANCOUVER – On Saturday, the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada selected a new leader. Peter MacKay, after four ballots, was chosen to succeed Joe Clark. The Tories have a new leader, and the man they've picked will lead them into the next election. Not for a long time, has a political convention provided so much drama. It started on Friday night when the candidates delivered their speeches. David Orchard, the rogue Tory candidate, gave a rather lackluster speech. He did, however, bring the second most delegates, second only to MacKay. Orchard's microphone was cut off, leaving the Saskatchewan farmer unable to finish his spiel. MacKay followed in the speaking order and gave perhaps the best speech of the night. Scott Brison followed with an interesting PowerPoint presentation that really was far too new. It was at once awkward as it was fresh. Jim Prentice's speech was done like Brison's, he too spoke without a podium and notes, and he too read from a Teleprompter. His speech was short on details, giving those gathered and watching a history lesson on Passchendaele, and tried to hit buttons of Canadian patriotism. The final speaker was Craig Chandler, a former Reformer and Alliance party organiser. He was a long shot who promised the media a bombshell at the end of his talk, which was really a blow-his-own-horn talk that managed to elicit booing from the audience. His right-wing vent was sickening frankly. Some media reports called his rant homophobic, and though he did announce he was dropping out to support Prentice, he managed to bash the leading Peter MacKay. Prentice was in the unenviable position of accepting what would be an endorsement that he could, frankly, have done without.

Saturday's voting, as it is at most political conventions, was marred with technical delays. MacKay came out on top on the first ballot, followed by Orchard, Prentice and Brison. Going into Saturday, everyone knew that Prentice and Brison would be bringing up the rear, and that between them there was a pact that the last place finisher would drop to support the better man out of the two of them. Brison, a sitting MP and media darling, came in fourth behind the largely unknown Calgary lawyer, Prentice. Because the party had adopted a hybrid system of selecting delegates at the constituency level by popular vote, the first ballot was largely predetermined. It would be on the second ballot where the movement could be properly gauged and where the fourth placed finisher would be dropped. It so happened that on the second ballot, all the candidates except Scott Brison dropped in their vote totals. However his gains were not good enough because he still finished last, three votes behind third place finisher Jim Prentice. Brison soon dropped out and went over to back Prentice. One of Brison's supporters in the caucus, fellow MP, John Herron had abandoned Brison to join MacKay right before the 2nd ballot results. This elicited a loud response from the generally restrained Brison. He charged that the MacKay campaign with threatening to strip Herron of his nomination in the next election, thus Herron had no choice but to back MacKay. Clearly, Brison would not ally himself with MacKay now.

On the third ballot, Orchard managed to hold his 600-odd delegates. Brison brought most of his support over to Prentice, but MacKay also gained some of his support, thus widening his lead. Orchard, the anti-free trader, managed to strike a deal with MacKay, thus crossed over to him to support him for the fourth and final ballot. Orchard going over to MacKay was interesting, because MacKay is largely seen as part of the Tory establishment, whilst Orchard is seen as a rogue and on the fringe with his stance against free trade, a tenet of Brian Mulroney's era. Had Orchard gone to Prentice instead, where he probably would have been more at home, then perhaps MacKay could have been stopped. Alas, it was not to be and so MacKay is the new leader of the Conservative party. Look for his image to be cultivated further. He's a generation younger than Stephen Harper, the Alliance leader, as well as a generation and a half younger than Paul Martin. Will the Tories manage a revival with the new political star at its helm?

First, Peter MacKay will look to mend the fences that only a leadership contest can knock over. There is a rift between MacKay and Brison and that will need to resolve itself quickly. Failing to do so, would divide the party, thus cancel out the effectiveness of the Conservative party, especially in its heartland of the moment, Atlantic Canada. Also, reconciling the dichotomy between the Orchard-rogue element and the establishment-MacKay side will need to be looked at immediately or else the Tories will be a party without a proper definition, something they wouldn't want, if they wanted to be an effective player throughout the country in the next election.

Joe Clark said in his farewell speech that the party is ready to govern, and that the party needs to work on that in the next 10 months, as Martin says he'll call an election in spring 2004. Frankly, though the Tories have felt a sort of lift in their support, especially at last month's by-election in Perth-Middlesex, they can't gain anything west of Ontario, and in Ontario, they'll probably end up splitting the vote, thus the Liberals will retain 98% of the province's seats. The right needs to come together, yet how they will come together will be the greatest question. Outright merger is opposed by both MacKay and Stephen Harper; both seem without a consensus over joint nominations. Joe Clark's declaration that the Tories will become relevant again, though hopeful for the rank and file, has not shown any semblance of fruition. While Mr. Clark was leader in the 2000 election campaign, the party's popular vote actually slipped below their disastrous result in 1993. Can MacKay improve that? It's highly doubtful considering the Alliance seems their biggest stumbling block and vice versa. The Liberals have a free pass because of this, and that's absolutely horrifying.

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