Sunday, March 22, 2003
Winning the Oscar war - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER Okay kids, even though the infamous red carpet will be truncated, the Oscars plan to go on tonight. Interest in this year's telecast has waned due to the conflict in Iraq. In true show business form, the show must go on. Herewith are my predictions for this year's Academy Awards. Finger's crossed, the show goes on and we'll be able to win our Oscar pools.
(By the way, if you go to http://vish.freeweb.bz, you can fill in an Oscar pool form. Submit it by 5:00 pm, today, and the one with the most correct will get a prize a copy of the Chicago soundtrack, available now from Epic Records.)
For Best Picture: Chicago. Last year aside, the film with the most nominations wins Best Picture. Chicago was big and brassy. Gangs of New York seems an epic enough film to win, but it was dark. They went down that road a year ago when A Beautiful Mind, won the Oscar.
For Best Supporting Actress, I'm betting on Meryl Streep winning for her turn in Adaptation. Catherine Zeta-Jones won the Screen Actor's Guild award, but the SAG awards haven't been an appropriate gauge, as Ms. Streep was not nominated. Ditto last year's Oscar winner, last year, Jennifer Connolly (A Beautiful Mind), who wound up in a different category at the SAG awards. Streep won the Golden Globe, and with this nomination became the most nominated performer in Academy Awards history, passing the great Katharine Hepburn.
For Best Supporting Actor, it's the Battle of The Chris''. It could go to Adaptation's Golden Globe winner Chris Cooper or BAFTA (the British Oscars) and SAG winner Christopher Walken for Catch Me if You Can. Walken's already got an Oscar, and I suppose he'll be like Jon Voight (who was nominated for Ali in this category last year), who as a former Oscar winner, deserved the nomination, but not necessarily the win. Recall that last year's Golden Globe winner (for Iris) Jim Broadbent went on to win the Oscar, and like Cooper isn't that well-known to many American audiences. I smell a repeat this year.
For Best Animated Feature, it's a toss up between Lilo and Stitch and Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron. In the second year that this Oscar has presented, it may just go to Lilo and Stitch, a Disney picture. Last year, it was ironic in the extreme that with the first animated picture Oscar being presented, it did not go to a Disney film. Well, the Academy may give it to Disney this year. However, gobs of publicity and critical praise have struck at the door step of Dreamworks' Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron. The baby of Dreamworks' one third Jeffrey Katzenberg has embarked on a massive PR campaign directed at Academy voters. I'd favour Spirit, but my money will be on Lilo and Stitch claiming the coveted Oscar.
For Art Direction, I'm guessing Chicago.
For Cinematography, it'll be Road To Perdition. Sam Mendes' second film was a first rate picture that looked it. Conrad Hall's cinematography on Mendes' first film, American Beauty, copped an Oscar, so I suppose he's got a good shot this year. Also, Perdition didn't get enough Oscar attention, that the Academy will reward it with this Oscar. And of course politics, as ever, plays a huge part in all of the voting. Conrad Hall is dead, so this nomination is a posthumous one. Plus, Hall was a governor at the Academy, heading up the cinematographer's branch. That said, the nomination is a lock, and his visibility amongst Academy members will certainly gain him some votes.
Costume Design: Chicago. If Chicago's going to win Best Picture, it's gotta also win those unimportant awards that they give out, while we're on a bathroom break. Costume Design is one of them.
For Best Director, the winner is usually that individual who won the Director's Guild of America prize. In the DGA's 55-year history, only five times has the DGA winner not gone on to cop the Oscar. Rob Marshall, the freshman director of Chicago, won the DGA. Martin Scorsese is in the category, he is definitely the sentimental favourite. I would have been inclined to pick Marty, but clearly the DGA theory can't be thrown out of the window. Also, Scorsese got into a bit of trouble in the last couple of weeks. See, famed two-time Oscar winning director Robert Wise (The Sound of Music and West Side Story, which he won with Jerome Robbins) had penned an open letter that appeared in all of the trade papers in Hollywood. Wise, was countering the blistering attack that Oscar-winning film scribe William Goldman had written bashing the non-winning Scorsese. Wise had written that Scorsese deserved the Oscar for Gangs of New York, having not won it for his previous work including Raging Bull and Goodfellas. Miramax had used the letter in an Oscar campaign ad, and pulled it immediately when the Academy brass frowned on the practice. See, Academy members are expressly forbidden to reveal whom they are voting for prior to the envelopes being opened. Wise is an Academy member. So this bad press has dampened the chances for a moral victory for Scorsese, who by all objective accounts, deserves a bloody Oscar by now.
Documentary Feature: Bowling for Columbine. Michael Moore's biting documentary on gun control in America has been a box office hit, as well has garnered well-deserved critical praise. Moore however has voiced strong criticism towards the studio releasing his film, claiming they were deliberately sabotaging his film's chances at winning the Oscar. Moore is still the odds on favourite to win, and it'll be interesting to hear what he says, considering he's one of the left-wing's most visible voices in opposing this President and the war in Iraq.
Documentary Short: Twin Towers, a short on September 11th.
Film Editing: Chicago.
Foreign Language Film: El Crimen Del Padre Amaro.
Makeup: Frida.
Original Score: Far From Heaven.
Original Song: "The Hands That Built America," from Gangs of New York. U2 has won the Golden Globe award, and has been a frontrunner for this award for a while now. Personally, John Kander and Fred Ebb who wrote "I Move On" from Chicago, would have been my choice. They deserve the Oscar.
Short Film Animated: The Chubbchubbs.
Short Film Live Action: Inja (Dog).
Sound: Chicago. How could a musical not sound good?
Sound Editing: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.
Visual Effects: Spider-Man.
Screenplay Adapted: I liked About A Boy a lot, but Adaptation has gotten a lot of praise. Chicago was scribed by Bill Condon, who won the Oscar a while back for Gods and Monsters. And The Hours of course is literary, as it has hit paydirt with an Oscar nomination for Best Picture. David Hare, who adapted The Hours is a famous playwright in his own right. I suspect he'll win the Oscar.
Screenplay Original: Nia Vardalos' My Big Fat Greek Wedding was a destined Oscar nominee, however only wound up with this single nomination. She's up against some heavy talent such as the brilliant Todd Haynes for Far From Heaven and Jay Cocks, Kenneth Lonergan and Steven Zaillian for writing Gangs of New York. Lonergan, for one was the scribe behind the critical hit of a couple years ago, You Can Count on Me, and Zaillian won the Oscar for adapting Schindler's List. Now Pedro Almodovar, the Spaniard film director has become a favourite for his critical hit, Talk To Her. Odds are favouring both Almodovar and Haynes, and there is word that vote splitting will occur, thus letting Ms. Vardalos come up the middle to win. I think Haynes deserves it, but my money's on the big fat Greek success, Manitoba's own Nia Vardalos.
Best Actor: It's Jack's. Jack Nicholson surprised everyone with his uncommon turn in About Schmidt. He won a Golden Globe and tons of praise. Daniel Day-Lewis' chances though have increased with his copping of the SAG award. Smart money is on Jack, the safest bet in town.
Best Actress: Like Daniel Day-Lewis, Renee Zellweger's chances have increased with her win of the SAG award, however Nicole Kidman has been the front runner for a while now. Some say she was deserving for Moulin Rouge, much more than Zellweger was for Bridget Jones' Diary. Kidman's rehabilitation following Tom Cruise, will be done with an Oscar win.
It looks to be an interesting Oscar telecast. Sadly, a lot of the pomp and circumstance surrounding the 75th anniversary of the Oscars (and incidentally the 50th year it's been on TV), has been deflated by the war in Iraq. Still, show business what it is, the show must go on, as drab as it'll be. Only in Hollywood, kids, only in Hollywood. Thanks Cindy.
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An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .