Friday, January 24, 2003
The ailing Alliance, and old Uncle Red - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER – I get the occasional e-mail from the office of the Leader of the Opposition in Ottawa. They distribute articles of interest about the leader, Stephen Harper and stuff regarding the party etc. It was no different yesterday morning, when an message headlined: "We told you so! EKOS got it WRONG!" appeared in my e-mail's inbox.
Last week EKOS, a polling firm, had a poll out that pegged the Canadian Alliance in fourth place amongst Canadians. The Liberals, as always, were ahead, whilst the Tories were in second, the NDP third, and the Alliance fourth. Their voter support was measured at 10.5%, which I'm sure made a few Alliance members feel a tad crestfallen, considering the Liberals have been doing an atrocious job, and that backbenchers have been out sniping at their leader, publicly. The Liberals got the support of 52%, the Tories at 14% and the NDP with roughly 14% as well. At the time, the rise of the Tories and NDP was attributed to their leadership races, as leadership races often help a party get into the public eye more. However, their usurping of the Alliance, putting them to fourth, was surprising considering their lacklustre campaigns to begin with.
So Stephen Harper's office put out a release lauding the findings of an Environics poll that was released yesterday. The Alliance now is in second place with 17% to the Liberals' 43%. The Tories and NDP are in third and fourth place respectively with 15% each, and the Bloc Quebecois with 9%. There is cause for some celebration at Alliance quarters, but the fact of the matter is, they still stink. They admit in their release that 17% stinks and that they "have a lot of work to do." Perhaps they should have put extra emphasis on ‘a lot'. Clearly, there's much work that needs to be done. 17% does not add up to the 26%, the Alliance got in the 2000 election. They've lost voter support.
Also, in Alberta they haven't done so good either. In the EKOS poll, the Alliance was said to be in a fight for second in their home province. The Environics poll states that the Alliance repudiates the previous poll by saying they're at 45%, in their founding province, which Mr. Harper's office says demonstrates a "continued stronghold." Alas, that's pretty sad, when you think of it. Why is it, that the Alliance's heartland Alberta, only supports the Alliance at 45%? In 2000, they took 59% of the vote there, and since then the Liberals have only floundered. Need I remind you of the gun registry fiasco? What about Gagliano, MacAulay, Eggleton, Fry and Minna? All hapless cabinet ministers turfed or escorted from the cabinet when they proved their ineptitude. How about the kerfuffle over Kyoto?
I guess what it proves is that the Alliance is having a hell of hard time connecting with voters. But with slipping support in of all places, Alberta, then they have to really worry. The Alliance is perceived, wrongly, as a party for people with necks of a reddish hue. It's that kind of Western restlessness that founded the Reform party and decried the establishment Conservative and Liberal parties. Sure they often say stupid things that are perhaps racist or insulting, but they do keep this government's feet to the fire. The great danger though is that with flagging support they may not have the moral authority to criticise so. I'm sure Liberals are buoyed by these latest polls, because they can govern as mindlessly as possible without much worry.
Stephen Harper, since taking over the party a year or so ago, can't be blamed much. Sure we can tack him with tastelessness over his veiled gay slur against Svend Robinson and those less than politically correct statements about Eastern Canadians, but other than that he isn't a boob like Stockwell Day, who seemed to attract controversy with every breath or wet suit. Harper, is a good, decent politician, and in politics that isn't really ideal. Nice guys finish last. And though a thoroughly nice guy, it's clear he isn't getting it done knocking Chrétien. I seriously doubt he'll do any better with Paul Martin.
If the Alliance can't win or even keep support in its own neck of the woods (even in BC they're down), how better do you think they'll do when it comes time to getting support in Eastern Canada or Quebec, or the dreaded Ontario. Ontario, where power resides, is where the Alliance needs to work. They can't seem to get it done. Stockwell Day may be feeling good right now, but the Liberals are feeling a hell of a lot better.
***
If you were listening to the highly-rated CKNW's highly-rated morning show with Frosty Forst yesterday morning, you did hear around 7:15, my little old name bandied about. Rick Forchuk, a contributor to Frosty's show, dropped my name in a report of his regarding Vancouver's legendary broadcaster one Red Robinson. For years, he's been introduced as an inductee into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Alas, the other night, I went to the website to look up Mr. Robinson's name, and it didn't show. I let Rick in on this little find of mine, and yesterday morning he duly reported that Robinson does not appear on the Hall of Fame roster. Rick will talk to Mr. Robinson and report back as to the legitimacy of his claim that he is in fact a member of the Hall of Fame. How's that for creating controversy on an idle Thursday morning, pissing off old Uncle Red?
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An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .