Monday, November 18, 2002
The Vancouver post-mortem - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER – Last Thursday, I delivered a presentation (which was really a speech) in front of my colleagues in the Urban Politics course at Langara. I spoke about the paper I'm currently writing on the history of COPE, the left-wing political party that stunned pundits everywhere, sweeping the civic governance of this city, Saturday night.
The size of the victory is large. Even the operatives at COPE are surprised. After years of getting shut out by the NPA, COPE managed to upset the status quo and took the mayor's chair in a landslide, eight of ten Council seats, five of seven Parks Board seats, and seven of nine School Board seats. The results are historic for those of the COPE outfit. The city has been remade and an interesting three years will be had by all Vancouverites.
Everyone knew Larry Campbell would be mayor, but no one predicted the size of his majority. No one predicted that COPE would leave none of its candidates unelected. It was highly unbelievable that COPE would switch sides with the NPA when it came to vote totals. As early as three weeks ago, in a seminar in that so said Political Science class at Langara, I noted that COPE would win four seats on Council, ditto for the NPA and perhaps the other two split between vcaTEAM and the Greens. Alas, political punditry is not one of my strong suits.
What's really interesting about this race, that will focus prominently in the paper that I'll be handing in later this month is that COPE has finally "galvanised vast and deep support within an acrimonious left-wing." That's a direct quote from my remarks on Thursday, talking simply about the mayor's race, as Jennifer Clarke didn't have a whole hell of a chance to win. With the results of the Council, School Board and Parks Board races in, it's clear that the left has banded together and that middle-of-the-road Vancouverites joined the rush.
With such a large majority given COPE, what will be interesting to see is whether they can keep it together until the next election. The obvious observation is that this will be as good as they ever get. Next time, surely they'll go down, as anything that does reach such lofty heights is wont to do. I said this too, the night that Gordon Campbell was handed that amazing majority of 77 out of 79 seats in the provincial legislature. The hard fought election is done, and the results are ideal, but will such power be exercised with the exact proportion of restraint and responsibility? Larry Campbell never was, and now that he's mayor, never will be a left-wing anarchist as most of the people at COPE. He's never joined a political party and the reason he ran for COPE is that he was looking for a job, after being turned down police chief jobs here and elsewhere. COPE jumped at the opportunity of having him as their candidate because he has the cache to attract votes. He certainly did that on Saturday. So won't this lack of indoctrination in the left-wing principles held by people like Tim Louis (a returning councillor) and Jim Green, run contrary to Campbell's held belief that he's there to govern and not merely pander to those that supported him? My biggest worry for COPE is that they will split from their mayor, when the large issues that COPE has historically championed, don't get enacted by a mayor not married to such ideology. I suspect that the powers that be at COPE were a tad ambitious in drafting Campbell out of style rather than the left-wing substance that they so endear themselves to. Harry Rankin, a founder of COPE, left the party in the 1990s when he thought they had become too much a civic mouth piece for the NDP. No one was more happy at the COPE bash on Saturday night than NDP leader Joy MacPhail and former leader and premier Glen Clark. (What, by the way, was he doing there anyways?)
This result has already been characterised as a repudiation of Gordon Campbell and the government in Victoria. Certainly, that's what MacPhail's been saying already. Should it be though? I don't think COPE should go away from Saturday thinking they've got a mandate to simply oppose the BC Liberals. They have a mandate to take the NPA out to pasture and only that. They may have a mandate to go a little faster on the Four Pillars approach, but up to that point, I worry when I think of the COPE dominated School Board constantly baiting Christy Clark and the provincial government at their every opportunity. I worry too that City Council will lose its relevance and become a forum to merely pass motions decrying the government in Victoria.
In a way I am sorry to see George Puil go. He hasn't been popular, and I've got to give him credit for not chickening out and deciding to "retire" prior to the vote, and actually risking his hide to the perils of the voter. His years of service have been of a credit to the city and I will miss him personally. With Puil's ignominious ouster, it will be interesting to see if the two NPA candidates elected will change with the times or try and emulate the Puil-Clarke-Gordon Campbell legacy of the NPA. Peter Ladner could easily be the NPA's next standard bearer, or even the returned Sam Sullivan. Both were elected against the COPE landslide and both now examine their place in civic politics and the viability of their non-partisan outfit between now and 2005.
The entry of vcaTEAM into this race raised the possibility of having a third party contest in the city. It failed. Perhaps they could have gotten it done in a previous context, but with middle-of-road voters rejecting them completely and going to COPE, it's clear that this city is a most polarised place. They should, at vcaTEAM, think about sticking around and attempting a re-run in 2005. Some of their candidates would be a good bunch to have around Council. vcaTEAM was considered to be a vote splitting possibility for the NPA. In the end, their supporters ended up not supporting vcaTEAM at all, and went going to COPE so as not to allow the NPA from forming government at all. They did not steal votes from the NPA, which means that there will be no real push to ‘unite the right'.
The game of what-if rears its head at this point. Let's suppose looking at the result, that COPE decided to run full slates of candidates, would it not, naturally spell out an outright sweep of the city's boards? COPE has avoided running full slates for a variety of reasons. Their main talking point is that they do so to focus their resources on those certain races. The perception had is that they are not ready to govern, and though that isn't the case because of the results of this Saturday, I bet they are going to seriously consider joining up with the Greens to once and for all solidify the left-wing base, or merely decide come 2005 to run full slates, damn the consequences. The informal coalition between the Greens this year, got Campbell elected, but the Greens did not fair better themselves. Their candidates fell behind those of the NPA, rather than nip at COPE's coat tails, as we all expected. Voters did not attach the Greens to COPE and in the end that really hurt the Greens themselves. Provincially the vote splitting allowed for the near shut out of the NDP, now the Greens will have to either join up with COPE next time or continue their exile from elected office. (The Greens' chair, Andrea Reimer, with COPE support, won a seat on School Board.) Also, considering an alliance with the NDP provincially should be considered come 2005, when we vote again provincially.
Dead too, is the notion that COPE was a purely east side party. Looking at the map, 118 of 144 precincts voted with Campbell, whilst the rest, save one, were for Clarke. (The exception was one where they had tied.) COPE has broken into territory west of Ontario Street and now goes the test if they can continue to do that next time around.
What should impress all, even the crestfallen Jennifer Clarke, is that voter turnout was a record high. That tells us that voter apathy really elected the NPA in the 1990s, and only that. Hitting 50% should give some orgasmic pleasure to some of the Political Scientists I know. The 30%ish had on previous municipal votes, always has been a much debated bone of contention for those in the field. Will that, like COPE itself, be around next time? Historical milestones were hit on Saturday, whether that means a change in Vancouver's thinking and habits, we'll have to wait until the next vote to see.
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An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .