Friday, October 18, 2002
How now Dumont? - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER -- The Mario Dumont phenomenon in Quebec, is in fact that. It is merely a phenomenon. From far off here in British Columbia, one cannot help but notice that something remarkably big has happened in Quebec. With the threat of separation finally hitting a low ebb, the appearance of the fashionable Dumont is appealing to Quebeckers who are sick to death with the constant see-saw battle on the issue of separating from Canada. The establishment parties, the Parti Quebecois and the Quebec Liberal Party have bored Quebeckers, and the people have looked to young Mario Dumont to hopefully save the day.
A new poll out yesterday pegs the Action démocratique du Quebec at 36% support in Quebec, whilst the Liberal Party under Jean Charest is at 32%. The governing Parti Quebecois under Premier Bernard Landry have got 27% support. Though the ADQ is ahead, the numbers are in stark contrast to those we saw this past summer, when Quebeckers got noticing, as well as the rest of Canada. In an August poll done by the Globe and Mail, Le Devoir, TVA and Leger Marketing, the ADQ garnered a whopping 40% in polls taken, whilst the Liberals were at 29%, and the Pequists were at 25%. It seems that August was when the ADQ and Dumont really took off in the hearts of the Quebecois voter. Since that meteoric rise, came interviews and forays, by Dumont, into English Canada. In early September, Dumont gave a speech to the Canadian Club in Toronto, a much publicised talk, that gave the rest of Canada their first look at this rising political star. While conducting some PR in Ontario, came the politics of this little outfit that could. Seems that the ADQ and Mario Dumont himself, are unabashed admirers of neo-conservatives like Mike Harris, Ralph Klein and Gordon Campbell. Seems too, that the ADQ was ready and prepared to bring the private sector into the fields of healthcare and education. Quell horreur! The Dumontisms on how to govern la belle province have probably added to the decline in support suffered by Dumont’s ADQ in this latest poll. The interesting thing about the ADQ’s decline is that both the Liberals and the Pequists have seen a rise in their popularity. Nearly, they split the remainder that the ADQ lost in the month or so since that August poll where Dumont peaked. Still, he’s on top and were a vote held today it would not be impossible that Dumont could be premier. Whether that will hold come the time of the real election is the great test and great question. Clearly, I doubt it will. Dumont’s best shot now will to usurp one of the two established parties and emerge as the new opposition in a definitely new Quebec.
So what does a new Quebec mean for the rest of us? Well, the decline of separation, as seen in the decline of the Parti Quebecois clearly means we will no longer have that gun of separation pointed at our heads. Charest, the Liberal leader, clearly is not one who wants to see Quebec go; and Dumont has made the pledge that he does not want to hold his own referendum, for at least ten years. It may be comforting that Quebec will stay and that Canada will stay together, but is it really good for the state of the nation? I think not.
A Liberal administration under the direction of Jean Charest, will most certainly try to bargain with Ottawa to -- yet again -- get a better deal for Quebec. Charest, a former federal Tory, was around when his old boss Brian Mulroney came up with Meech Lake and Charlottetown. Charest will want to revive constitutional fights and try to get more and more power for a province with a declining population. Now, mind you, Charest’s got a good case. Quebec has not signed on to the 1982 repatriation of the constitution and they’d be well advised to. Trudeau is dead, and whoever will step into the PMO after Jean Chrétien (read: Paul Martin) will be encouraged to try and bring Quebec back into the Canadian constitutional family. However for the 70% of British Columbians who rejected Charlottetown ten years ago this month, there will be no comfort in allowing Quebec to sign on to the constitution. Charest, for all his good intentions, will certainly blackmail Canada into giving Quebec more and more. More and more, that will come from BC, which already is disgustingly underrepresented. A Liberal government in Quebec would be far more dangerous than a separatist government.
The PQ’s chances at regaining government are slim at best. Their amalgamation of municipalities was highly unpopular, thus you saw the federal Bloc lose support in the 2000 federal election. The only chance that the PQ’s got, is in the success of the ADQ. Politics makes for strange bedfellows and we have already seen Jean Charest shift his focus of attack away from the current government, and on to the upstart 3rd party and Mr. Dumont. Bernard Landry, not a terribly popular man in Quebec, will want to remain above the fray (or below the radar screen, whatever metaphor you choose) and allow Charest and Dumont the chance to duke it out. Perhaps the PQ may get that electoral reprieve and retain office, or if Landry is far too neglecting, the PQ may cease to exist. Politics abhors a vacuum and if the PQ goes into irrelevance, then the ADQ will certainly fill that void. Quebec, like BC, is not a three-party state. No, only two parties can be viable at any time in Quebec.
The other interesting, and perhaps landscape altering change faced by Quebec is that of their embrace of Dumont’s neo-conservative agenda. If Quebeckers show their rampant support for privatisation and all that, then we will definitely see a sea change in the attitudes of Quebeckers. It was in 1960, with the tyrannical Maurice Duplesis dead, that the Quebec Liberals of Jean Lesage swept into office touting the mantra “maîtres chez nous,” ‘masters in our own house.’ The Quebec government of the day, Lesage’s minister one René Lévesque overseeing the process, privatised many Quebec businesses, namely that of the provincial hydroelectric company. Since 1960, Quebeckers have generally practised a left-of-centre approach to the running of government, irrespective of a Pequist or Liberal administration. Were Dumont successful, then Quebec would be forever changed. Perhaps it is a signal that Quebeckers are finally comfortable in their own skin, and probably comfortable within Canada, never anymore wary of ‘les Anglos.’ It’s crunch time, for all sides. However everyone’s watching Dumont. It’s his move.
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An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .