Thursday, May 16, 2002
The political landscape hardly moved - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER -- The political pundits in the country arrived at the general consensus that Monday’s seven by-elections would go 6-1 in favour of the Liberals. The one holdout would be the Calgary Southwest seat where Canadian Alliance leader Stephen Harper would run unopposed by the governing Grits. Well, they retained four Liberal seats -- a seat in Manitoba, two in Quebec, and one in Newfoundland. But, and a big but here, they failed to win two seats in Ontario and Newfoundland. These seats were long-time Liberal seats. The seat of Gander-Grand Falls in Newfoundland was formerly held by George Baker, before he was kicked up to the Senate last month. He had held the seat since 1974, making the seat in Grit hands for some 28 years. The other seat lost by the Liberals was that of Windsor West, held since 1962 by former deputy prime minister, Herb Gray. Nearly 40 years later, the seat leaves the Grit column, giving many much to think about.
There is much contemplation within the Liberal party, but more for political watchers as the results signal that politics remains an art, rather than a science. The Liberals have been dealt symbolic defeats. It proves that much of the political inclination to vote Liberal in this country stems from the personal popularity of the candidates they choose to field. It is ironic that Jean Chrétien’s hand-picked candidate in Gander-Grand Falls, Beaton Tulk, a former Newfoundland premier was beaten. More importantly beaten by a Progressive Conservative in the form of one Rex Barnes. Just when we all thought the Tories were on the road to self-destruction, they manage to score an upset win in a formerly Grit stronghold. Certainly, Barnes’ personal popularity in the riding aside, the Liberals ought to reconsider their policy of appointing candidates. That practice is seriously bastardising democracy within the party, thus illegitimatising the parliamentary democracy they seek to participate in.
In Windsor West, the Liberal chosen to replace the Rt. Hon. Herb Gray, Richard Pollock, failed to continue the nearly 40 year winning streak of his party. Perhaps, like in Gander-Grand Falls, the shoes were hard to fill, but that’s no excuse to losing the seat to a New Democrat. Like the Tories, it is most surprising to see, of all the candidates, a New Democrat winning the seat. Especially since the Alliance came in second in the 2000 election. Chalk Brian Masse’s win to local popularity like his Tory colleague from Gander.
The big loser at the end of the day isn’t the Liberals. It’s the Canadian Alliance. Sure, they’ve got their leader Stephen Harper entering the House, to claim his seat as the Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition and MP for Calgary-Southwest. However the Alliance has a whole hell of a lot of explaining to do about its showing in the other races. First in Quebec, where we weren’t expecting an Alliance win, the Alliance failed to field a candidate in Saint Leonard, where in 2000 they came in 3rd behind the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberal, the now-Ambassador to Denmark, Alfonso Gagliano. (Massimo Pacetti succeeds the sleazy Gagliano.) Also in Quebec, in the riding of Verdun-Saint Henri-Saint Paul-Pointe Saint Charles, where the Alliance came in ahead of the 5th place NDP, they fall 5th, as the Grits win, run-up by the Bloc, Tories, and NDP. Certainly in Quebec, the rising support Stockwell Day used to talk about has evaporated. There isn’t much excuse in how they finished this time, considering the unpopularity of the Parti Quebecois, and the irrelevance of both the Tories and NDP in Quebecois politics.
In Saint Boniface in Manitoba, which was held by Ron Duhamel before his sinecure to the Senate, the Alliance and Tories are responsible for a vote split that allowed the Grit to win. Should the Alliance and Tories’ vote counts be summed, a small-c conservative would have taken the seat. This gives more credence to the argument that a single slate of candidates be pursued, yet with Stephen Harper’s position on merger, that won’t happen.
Back to Windsor, where the Alliance argued that the result there would be a verdict on the government’s performance. Well, if we’re to take the result literally, then it can be said the people are dissatisfied with the Liberal Party. However, if we take the result and see that the Alliance slipped from 2nd to 3rd, overtaken by the NDP (of all parties!) then there needs to be some serious work done to legitimise the Alliance’s role as the Official Opposition. With the election of Stephen Harper we will have no doubt a strong Canadian Alliance party. That party though, will only be strong in Western Canada. It will not be taken seriously east of Manitoba and will fail to live up to being a real alternative to the governing Grits. At the end of the day, the Liberals may have lost a bit, but the Alliance has lost more and will continue to loose more credibility and viability across the country.
The Alliance and Tories will not merge in the foreseeable future. Stephen Harper has made it clear it is not a priority of his. And Joe Clark has proved proud to not bend to a bunch of rag-tag Westerners, and rightfully so I might add. Yet this dichotomy between the two small-c conservative parties in Canada will only allow the Liberals to win, no matter their performance as a government.
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An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .