Thursday, January 3, 2002
In a nutshell, 2002 - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
On the heels of The Death List column of last week, I note today the passing of Academy Award recipient Eileen Heckart. She was 82. Ms. Heckart won her Oscar for Butterflies Are Free, and I remember her for a funny turn as an overbearing mother-in-law on a short-lived CBS sitcom. Following her Oscar win in 1972 -- a couple of days after the Oscar show -- she was seen at the local unemployment office, applying for unemployment insurance.
VANCOUVER -- On New Year’s Day last year, I posted a column entitled: “Here we go again.” It was my feeble attempt at making predictions for the upcoming year. Being nothing like Nostradamus, I did not happen to predict the horrors of September 11, but I did make some prescient forecasting.
However, there were some predictions that were truly out to lunch. For example, two years ago, in this space, I said that Bill Bradley would become President of the United States. One year ago, I said the British Columbia NDP would win “no less than 19” seats in a March 2001 election. The election was called in May of 2001 and they wound up with 2 out of 79. Off the mark is a true understatement. But I did get right the thought that the Green Party wouldn’t win a seat, despite a decent electoral showing.
I did get right that Jean Chrétien would say something stupid. A while back he noted out loud that between him and President Bush, his job was easier because he didn’t need to get things approved by Parliament, whereas Bush has to deal with Congress. The contempt is damning. Chrétien must go. As much as 2002 seems the time, he’ll stick around.
I noted that Preston Manning would pack up his political career; and short of announcing that he would, he’s still in politics until the next month I think. On the Alliance front, I think Stockwell Day will retain the leadership, thus the title Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. What will be interesting is where the ‘unite-the-right’ effort will take him, but I suspect the status quo will remain, thus Joe Clark has a rag-tag group of Tories and former Alliancers like Deb Grey; and the Alliance in permanent threat of self destruction.
For 2001, I thought that Lucien Bouchard would step away from the premiership of Quebec. And he did. Bernard Landry will remain his successor, as Premier of Quebec in 2002, not calling an election until next year.
I forecasted comic Tom Green doing “something stupidly funny” and he did marry Drew Barrymore and then they divorced. I didn’t see Madonna get pregnant, neither did Celine Dion get knocked up. She did have that nauseating christening, that was nothing remotely ‘toned down’. And Rob Lowe didn’t leave The West Wing. He got an Emmy nod this year, something he didn’t get the year before.
Frasier remains on the air, and it probably will into next season. I don’t think Friends will however. Unless Dave Schwimmer decides to stay, which he doesn’t plan to, Friends will be no longer on NBC. But you never know, because I said that last year.
On some of the other predictions I made last year: I’m most pleasantly surprised that Steven Soderbergh did win “at least one Oscar” in March. Being that the upcoming Oscar race is pretty unpredictable so far, I won’t dare make a prediction now. For host however, I think Steve Martin has a hell of a shot at making a return appearance. That’s if they can’t get Billy Crystal. My vote would be for Ellen DeGeneres, if for her funny turn at the Emmy’s. All-time favourite host would still be Dave Letterman, but that’s near to slim that he’d host come this March. To gloat: The National Post did go through some major changes this year, whilst Justin Trudeau’s new job did make the press rounds.
So for 2002, what’ll be? Well, I think Gordon Campbell’s cut and slash here in BC will get ugly. I think the consternation towards his budgetary policies will face the wrath of public opinion, whilst his Native referendum will be more a whimper rather than a bang.
The upcoming musical version of The Sweet Smell of Success will be billed Broadway’s next Producers, but it won’t stick. It’ll do fine business, but I doubt it eclipsing, let alone imitating Mel Brooks’ success.
Ronnie and Nancy Reagan will make news in 2002, and I think another former president will do the same.
Salt Lake City’s Winter Olympics won’t be much of a TV draw and I think thoughts to further terrorism will haunt these games.
Rudy Giuliani will publish a book in the fall and calls for his return to political life will be rampant. My guess is he’ll make a serious bid towards national politics.
The municipal elections in this town will be interesting, as it’ll probably revolve around George Puil’s umpteenth running for a Council space. My guess is he won’t run in November. Philip Owen will run for the Mayor’s chair again, but I think he’ll face serious competition. And that serious competition won’t be from the leftist COPE.
I’ll also be very glad when live theatre returns to the city with the re-opening of the heretofore dark Ford Centre. The house that Garth Drabinsky built will re-open with moderate success.
In Ontario, the race to succeed Mike Harris will spawn a provincial election with either a minority government by the retaining Tories or a resurgent Liberal Party.
Ralph Klein will step down as Alberta’s Premier sometime in 2002, while Gordon Campbell’s Liberals will face a major resignation from cabinet.
George W. Bush’s popularity will decline and the precedence by a previous Bush, will see that popularity wane because of matters economic, not this ‘war on terrorism’.
Osama bin Laden will not be found, and conflict will ensue in the Middle East. My guess is Israel will take a more heavy handed approach against the Palestinians and Yasser Arafat’s power will be seriously undermined.
The election in France will be interesting. If the socialist Jospin defeats Gaulist Chirac, look for France’s role in the world to be redefined, diametrically opposed to that of the West. My money is betting that Chirac will retain, furthering tensions within the French government.
The Tories in Great Britain will face more troubles, as their new leader Mr. Duncan-Smith will certainly stumble. Tony Blair will laugh.
I don’t think Moe Sihota’s new found career as a news reader will last. Moses Znaimer’s VI on Vancouver Island will slip further into ratings oblivion.
The Whistler-Vancouver Olympic bid here, will get further boosts, but 2003 will spell more movement on Jack Poole’s new file.
Globalisation will do its thing further in 2002, meaning the media in Canada will get more fractious. I don’t think the National Post will mean anything in this country, if it ever did. It will become a silly and marginal house organ for Izzy Asper and of course, the Liberal Party of Canada.
Conrad, Lord Black of Crossharbour, will taunt Canadians still from Blighty.
Allan Fotheringham will be evicted from Maclean’s back page, a page he’s occupied for nearly 30 years.
Jane Fonda will make more public appearances, while either Oprah or Rupert Murdoch may face relationship woes. Look for Martha Stewart to wed.
Britney Spears and her N’Sync beau will wed, while another Baldwin marriage will unravel. I too think that a major marriage is in the works between Tom and Penelope. It’ll also be sad when Matthew Broderick and Sarah Jessica Parker will split. After Tom and Nicole; Alec and Kim; Julia and Ben and others, nothing is impossible.
Elizabeth II will celebrate her 50th year on the United Kingdom’s throne and see that support for the monarchy will rise.
Ben Stiller will emerge as the comic genius of his generation, while Al Pacino, Marvin Hamlisch, Tom Hanks, Martin Scorsese, Chita Rivera and Francis Ford Coppola will be showered with awards. Liza Minnelli, like Carol Burnett, will find renewed notoriety.
2002 will be a good year, the economy will tank, but we’ll all make it; and make it splendidly well.
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An archive of Joseph Planta's previous columns can be found by clicking HERE .