March 23, 2001
The toast of Oscar - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER -- With the Oscars this Sunday, today a look at who’s nominated and who I think will win. Along with the April edition of Talk magazine’s cover story, it’s clear that Benicio Del Toro is the man of the hour. Nominated for his first Oscar for Steven Soderbergh’s Traffic, he’s got the inside lead. (By the way, the interview is terrific reading.)
Amongst Del Toro’s fellow nominees are, Joaquin Phoenix for Gladiator, Albert Finney in Erin Brockovich, Jeff Bridges in The Contender and Willem Dafoe in Shadow of the Vampire. With the exception of Dafoe’s performance, I ’ve seen the others and while Albert Finney is deserving, it’s Benicio Del Toro’s to loose.
Time and chance, that’s how to figure out who’ll win Hollywood’s most coveted prize -- Oscar. See if they were really about excellence, whatever the hell that is, Alfred Hitchcock would have an Oscar. In actuality, the Oscars are a political, popularity contest. If it isn’t your time, then forget it. See Judi Dench’s first nominated performance, Mrs. Brown and the chance, winner Helen Hunt got. Finney, with his career in perspective, should have an Oscar on the mantle. Yet Del Toro’s performance is far more intense; far more deserving. Thus, Albert Finney won’t win. Safe money is on Del Toro. When I saw Traffic, a film not of my tea drinking taste, I was struck by Del Toro’s performance. He is captivating and its mostly derived from an enigmatic quality that is utter coolness personified.
The race for supporting actor, before I go on, is between Finney and Del Toro. To impart a little jockeying for Finney, one is directed to the last 8 winners of the Oscar in this category. Save for Kevin Spacey and Cuba Gooding, the awardees have been of a certain demographic. They’ve generally been older performers who are well respected, some who’ve won Oscars already or nominated. They were: Michael Caine (last year’s), James Coburn, Gene Hackman, Robin Williams, Martin Landau and Tommy Lee Jones, providing a little more hope for the man who once played Tom Jones. (No, not that Tom Jones.)
For actress in a supporting role, the nominees are: Judi Dench in Chocolat, Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock, Kate Hudson in Almost Famous, Frances McDormand in Almost Famous and Julie Walters in Billy Elliot. Dench has been nodded twice and won once. McDormand won the lead actress Oscar for Fargo, while Walters has been nominated in the past. Kate Hudson is perhaps the ‘it ’ star of the moment. Her mum, Goldie Hawn has an Oscar of her own and Hudson did capture the Golden Globe. The Screen Actor’s Guild award, however was awarded to Judi Dench. The SAG award is the most accurate representation of who’ll win. The only time it was off was two years ago when SAG’s Actor went to Robert Duvall for A Civil Action, while the Oscar went to James Coburn for Affliction. I’m betting on Dame Judi, however Kate Hudson’s got a shot if only the Gwyneth Paltrow precedent set when she won the Oscar two years ago for Shakespeare In Love.
For actress in a lead role, most of Hollywood is of the shared belief that Julia Roberts will win. Critics have favoured Laura Linney’s performance in You Can Count On Me or Ellen Burstyn for Requiem For A Dream, however this award is Roberts’ to loose. The $20-million actress who donned Erin Brockovich, will win. Chocolat’s Juliette Binoche already has one for The English Patient, as does Burstyn who won in 1975 for Scorsese’s Alice Doesn’ t Live Here Anymore.
Actor in a lead role, is rather weak. Tom Hanks took the Golden Globe for Cast Away, which is deserving if what they say is true -- he captivated the screen for an hour, on his own. He’s got a pair already, so he could win, but I doubt it. Geoffrey Rush who won 4 years ago for Shine, could win, but I doubt his turn in Quills made the requisite rounds. Ed Harris for Pollock and Javier Bardem for Before Night Falls are highly deserving, yet because their performance are obscured Lady Time and Mister Chance, shan’t be visiting them on Oscar night. Russell Crowe, even though I disliked Gladiator, was good. He is a good actor and Gladiator is the sort of movie one wins an Oscar for, especially after being overlooked last year for his remarkable turn in The Insider. This is what I call the Faye Dunaway/Judi Dench syndrome. Dunaway was nominated for Chinatown, and was most deserving of the Oscar. However that year, 1974, she lost to Ellen Burstyn. In 1976 she was nominated for Network, which is deemed far less deserving, but because she lost in ‘74 she should win in ‘76. (Judi Dench was deserving for Mrs. Brown in 1998, yet lost. In 1999, she was practically given an Oscar for 7 minutes in Shakespeare In Love.) Crowe’s performance in The Insider was brilliant, but Kevin Spacey won, so Crowe will win this year.
In the 73-year history of the Academy Awards, the best picture and director winners are practically hand-in-hand. See last year’s winners: American Beauty and its helmer, Sam Mendes. This year I doubt we’ll have something as part and parcel. Add to the patterns of picture + director, the rule regarding the Director’s Guild of America. The DGA hands out an award for the best director of the year. Only 4 times in the last 50-odd years has the winner of the DGA not gone on to win the director’s Oscar, thus the best picture. The last time was two years ago when Spielberg won for directing Saving Private Ryan both at the DGA and Oscars, yet Shakespeare In Love won the Oscar as the best picture.
This year Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon is nominated for best picture and best foreign film. It’ll win foreign film, thus it’s chances for best picture are slimmed. Gladiator won the Golden Globe for best picture (Drama) thus it has the inside track for the Oscar.
Well, Ang Lee (who won a Globe,) has won the DGA prize. Thus, a quandary. If we believe the DGA result that Lee will win the Oscar, I seriously doubt Dragon/Tiger will win best picture. I’ve thought Traffic as arguably the best picture of the year. (Billy Elliot was my favourite.) Perhaps if the Lee win means something, Traffic’s chances stand out better. Then again, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon could win both picture awards. See it’s a game. What seems a mediocre year in pictures makes it all the more competitive. My money’s on Lee winning best picture and Gladiator winning best picture.
Before I sign out, a thought on Steven Soderbergh. Because of the unprecedented double nomination in both best picture and best director for his achievements in 2000, it’s funny how both Erin Brockovich and Traffic’s chances have slimmed. Vote-splitting. Whatever the result, it’ll provide a tiny bit of excitement this Sunday night.
The Oscars are this Sunday, March 25, 2001 on ABC.
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