June 23, 2000
What to expect on the first ballot - THE COMMENTARY
By Joseph Planta
VANCOUVER -- What’ll happen tomorrow at the Canadian Alliance Leadership Convention in Calgary? Who’ll win? Who will I vote for?
One things for sure, the race has gotten interesting. Of the five candidates that’ll be on the ballot tomorrow, there’s only one man who’ll probably do well. That man is Preston Manning. Dr. Keith Martin, as level-headed and visionary as he is, won’t be a contender, but I’m sure his support on the ballot will be surprising. John Stachow... well, he’s just kidding himself. With Preston, who’ll probably land 35%-40% on the first ballot, second place is equally important tomorrow, as the top two candidates will square off on a second ballot which will be held on July 8th. In the second place spot, I’ll expect Stockwell Day. Tom Long’s reputation is shot over this whole Gaspé thing and really he had no real shot in the first place.
Manning will lead tomorrow, but his lead will not be strong enough to take him over the 50% plus 1 threshold needed for a decisive and official victory. Tom Long’s place after tomorrow’s ballot will be interesting. Will he renege on his promise to me on Warren’s WIC show last Saturday, that he’ll stick with the party in the long run? Will he take the precious support of the Ontario vote with him?
No winners will be crowned on that first ballot. That’s a given. What’ll be interesting to look for is the level of support Tom Long will get and the kind of reception the Calgary crowd will give him. The Ontario backroom boy will feel awfully out of place in Reform country.
For months I have said I’d support Stockwell Day. I’ll probably end up voting for him on Saturday, but I still could get swayed. I’ve gotten at least 3 pieces of mail from Tom Long in as many days, including a letter from his wife Leslie which, of course, was very complimentary to her husband. The Long people also sent a video and although very inventive and highly campaign-like, he did blunder when he referred to the gun registry as Allan Rock’s gun registry, when it really is Anne McLellan’s responsibility. I took a call last Wednesday from Preston Manning and although his voice isn’t as annoying in person, I can’t muster voting for him. (Even though, he did offer a ride to the poll.)
My vote can only go two ways. Stockwell Day or Dr. Keith Martin. I like Dr. Martin, and I know he has done genuine work in the 7 years he’s been representing Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca in the Commons. He’s not a radical redneck like Stock Day and he’s actually proposing things that are practical in terms of healthcare and stuff of the sort. Still, Stockwell Day presents the best shot to keep Western Canada votes and earn some votes East of Manitoba. Should he win, he should put his religious and social views off the front burner, if he expects to win votes at all and make the Canadian Alliance this broad-based coalition, they all harp it up to be.
It’s an interesting time in politics and to have a say in it, is not only a thrill but extremely fascinating. Tomorrow’s vote is direct democracy, and we certainly need something like that in our country. And if I can help get these damned Liberals out of office, then good on me.
See you at the polls! (I’ll expect some royal screw-ups in the ballot counting, by the way.)
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